BC NDP could win election today with BC Conservatives close behind: poll

A recent poll shows if the province held an election now, the BC NDP would likely win a majority government, and the BC Conservatives would come in close second.

Abacus Data surveyed 1,000 eligible voters in British Columbia last week and found that although support for the provincial NDP has declined overall, David Eby’s party would likely take 40 per cent of a vote ahead of John Rustad’s BC Conservative Party, which polled at 34 per cent.

Results of the poll displayed on a chart.
Abacus Data surveyed 1,000 eligible voters in B.C. from May 6 to May 9. (Courtesy Abacus Data)

If an election was held at the time of the survey, the BC NDP would likely win another majority government although the 18-point lead we measured in November of 2023 has closed to six points over the BC Conservatives,” Abacus Data said.

According to the poll, BC United would trail behind, earning just 13 per cent of the vote — down four points from November.

BC United Leader Kevin Falcon told reporters Monday he’s “not thrilled” by the poll but isn’t disheartened by the findings.

“It’s a strange dichotomy,” said Falcon. “The polls [are] saying one thing, and on the other hand, I’m attending sold-out fundraisers.”

University of the Fraser Valley professor and political analyst Hamish Telford told CityNews the narrowing gap between the top two parties in the poll is confirmation of a recent trend.

“The BC Conservatives are now polling well in the Lower Mainland. And I think what’s probably especially concerning to the BC NDP is that BC Conservatives are, in fact, out-polling the NDP with younger voters,” said Telford.

He said the poll indicates that the BC NDP should turn its attention to the BC Conservatives when campaigning ahead of this year’s provincial election.

Telford said in the last six months, “BC United has fallen off, and the BC Conservatives have continued to grow — to the point where they now appear to be the main alternative to the governing NDP.”

He added that the Conservatives have achieved their popularity by riding the coattails of Pierre Poilievre’s federal Conservative Party, despite having no direct link between the two.

Telford predicts that if current polls reflect eventual election results, it will likely mean a change of leadership for BC United, adding a merger between the opposition parties is probably only a post-election possibility.

Falcon said Monday he won’t speculate on a merger between his party and the BC Conservatives, but said conversations are happening to “find common ground.”