New polling shows the upstart BC Conservative Party appears to be winning the fight for the votes of federal Conservative Party supporters.
According to data released by the Angus Reid Institute on Monday, 56 per cent of would-be Conservative Party of Canada voters would cast their ballot for the BC Conservatives if an election were held today.
BC United, which changed its name last year from the BC Liberal Party, would pick up 29 per cent of those voters.
The BC Liberal Party has historically drawn votes from a coalition of right-leaning voters in both the federal Liberal and Conservative parties.
But the Angus Reid data shows the renamed party could also face challenges holding the support of those Liberal backers.
According to the poll, 57 per cent of federal Liberal voters surveyed would cast their ballot for the BC NDP, while 36 per cent would vote BC United.
Federal NDP supporters, perhaps unsurprisingly, strongly back the BC NDP. Eighty-two per cent would cast a vote for the provincial party, with 11 saying they would vote green and six per cent saying they would vote for BC United.
The polling data, collected between Feb. 28 and March 6, has the BC NDP leading overall with the support of 43 per cent of voters, while the two parties on the right each had 22 per cent support.
Those two parties’ leaders have their work cut out for them in the run-up to October’s provincial election, when it comes to how they’re viewed by the public the poll suggests.
BC United Leader Kevin Falcon was viewed favourably by 33 per cent and unfavourably by 41 per cent of federal Conservative voters. BC Conservative Leader John Rustad was viewed favourably by 47 per cent and unfavourably by just 14 per cent of federal Conservative voters.
While the BC Conservative Party appears to be making inroads in the right wing of B.C. provincial politics, they still face several structural challenges.
The party has not elected an MLA under the BC Conservative banner in decades, and last fielded a full slate of candidates in 1960, meaning it will have to work to build up its riding-level organization to get voters to the polls.
It is also significantly behind in fundraising.
In 2023 the BC NDP raised more than $4.5 million, compared to $2.98 million for BC United, $1.2 million for the BC Greens and $443,000 for the BC Conservatives. However, almost $300,000 of the Conservatives haul came in the final quarter of 2023, suggesting the party is picking up momentum.
British Columbians go to the polls on October 19, 2024.
The poll was conducted between Feb. 28 and March 6 among a randomized sample of 809 adult British Columbians who are members of the Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
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