Surrey is not expected to become the most populous city in Metro Vancouver anytime soon.
This is expected to be a long-term trend, too. Currently the second most populous city, Surrey also will not elapse Vancouver’s population throughout the next quarter century through 2050, which is the upper extent of the forecast timeline.
According to Metro Vancouver Regional District’s newly released population growth estimates this week, the city of Vancouver will remain the most populous municipality in British Columbia.
Although Surrey will continue to reduce the population gap with Vancouver year by year, projections across all growth scenarios — low, medium, and high — indicate that Vancouver will retain its status as the most populous city.
Of the three scenarios, the regional district deems the medium-growth scenario to be the “most likely.”
Under the medium-growth scenario, Vancouver’s population would reach 816,000 in 2030, 912,000 in 2040, and 991,000 in 2050 — up from 698,000 in 2021. Conversely, Surrey’s low-growth scenario pegs its population increase at 734,000 in 2030, 859,000 in 2040, and 960,000 by 2050 — up from 597,000 in 2021.
Burnaby is projected to remain Metro Vancouver’s third most populous city across all scenarios. Under the medium-growth scenario, Burnaby’s population would rise from 262,000 in 2021 to 310,000 in 2030, 354,000 in 2040, and 388,000 in 2050.
Notably, the westernmost end of the Burrard Peninsula would see a drastic population growth in all scenarios, which would help support the case for the future SkyTrain extension of the Millennium Line to the University of British Columbia (UBC).
The medium-growth scenario sees UBC’s population increasing from 29,000 in 2021 to over 52,000 in 2050, while the University Endowment Lands (UEL) next to UBC would rise from 3,400 in 2021 to 26,000 in 2050. The population growth of the combined UBC and UEL areas would rise from about 32,000 to more than 78,000 over this period. Such a population level by 2050 within a small geographical area would be comparable to the existing populations of the City of New Westminster or the City of North Vancouver.
As a whole, Metro Vancouver’s population in a medium-growth scenario would climb from 2.784 million in 2021 to 3.323 million in 2030, 3.81 million in 2040, and 4.21 million in 2050.
The Burrard Peninsula sub-region (Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, UBC, and UEL combined) would see its population increase from 1.075 million in 2021 to 1.6 million in 2050. Conversely, the South of Fraser-East sub-region (Surrey, Langley Township, and Langley City combined) would see its population rise from 789,000 in 2021 to 1.277 million in 2050.
For the high-growth scenario, Vancouver’s population would reach 820,000 in 2030, 930,000 in 2040, and 1.033 million in 2050, while Surrey’s population would reach 738,000 in 2030, 878,000 in 2040, and 1.009 million in 2050. Metro Vancouver’s population as a whole in such a scenario would reach 3.34 million in 2030, 3.88 million in 2040, and 4.9 million in 2050.
“This data will help the region with more cost-effective planning for infrastructure like utilities and transit, and ensure that Metro Vancouver municipalities are meeting the needs of our growing region,” said Eric Woodward, Chair of the Regional Planning Committee for Metro Vancouver Regional District and the Mayor of the Township of Langley.
“Accurate data like this helps us work together to better understand the growth pressures our region will face in the future, and help ensure collective planning efforts are consistent with the goals in the regional growth strategy, Metro 2050.”
The regional district’s updated forecast, which predict Vancouver will remain Metro Vancouver’s most populous city, contradict previous predictions spanning since the early 2000s that Surrey would become the region’s most populous city within the foreseeable future.
This includes contradicting the provincial government’s BC Statistics forecasts, which are updated annually. According to the separate estimates by the provincial government, Surrey is projected to become BC’s most populated city in 2029 when it reaches a population of 766,000, toppling Vancouver’s growth to 775,000.
Surrey’s population is projected to reach 785,000 in 2030, 951,000 in 2040, and 1.024 million in 2046, which is the furthest year currently covered by the provincial government’s predictions. Conversely, Vancouver’s population would reach 775,000 in 2029, 784,000 in 2030, 885,000 in 2040, and 952,000 in 2046. Metro Vancouver’s population would reach 3.394 million in 2030, 3.995 million in 2040, and 4.336 million in 2046. The region’s population is expected to reach and exceed the three-million milestone in 2024.
When asked to explain the differences with BC Statistics’ population growth estimates, Metro Vancouver Regional District told Daily Hive Urbanized that the main difference lies in the model and assumptions used.
BC Statistics uses a simplified version of the cohort component model, which only incorporates in-migrations, not out-migrations. However, out-migration has increased significantly over the last census period — about 22,000 people now leave Metro Vancouver annually for other parts of BC, up from the previous figure of about 5,000 per year. As well, there are differences in expected fertility rates, with deaths expected to outpace births after 2035.
The regional district’s “model is more granular, considering all the different migration modes and in and out-migrations. Metro Vancouver produces three projection scenarios: low, medium, and high. Our high growth scenario is close to BC Stats projections. The difference between our three scenarios is in immigration and fertility rates. A high-growth scenario assumes higher immigration and a higher fertility rate.”
They also told Daily Hive Urbanized that their medium-growth scenario assumes “strong, but more realistic growth in the region,” and takes into account the federal government’s recently announced reduction of 20% in immigration targets, which reflects the short-term ups and downs expected in long-range forecasts.
In essence, according to the regional district, its latest forecast should be more accurate than the predictions of the provincial government.
However, when asked, the regional district noted that they have yet to consider how the provincial government’s various new housing supply-related policies and legislation will impact population growth. They believe these policies and legislation will impact the distribution of growth across Metro Vancouver’s geographical area, not overall population growth in the region. The regional district’s September 2025 population growth forecast update will consider municipal inputs regarding the new housing legislation.
Additionally, when it comes to incorporating the impacts of area densification plans — such as the City of Vancouver’s Broadway Plan and the City of Surrey’s Fleetwood Plan — the regional district states that it regularly consults with municipal staff to understand the changes to these neighbourhood/district planning strategies, which are reflected in the annual population growth forecast updates. Furthermore, the City of Vancouver’s new Vancouver Plan calls for significant densification across the entire city.
Moreover, the regional district anticipates that moving forward, a net annual average of 50,000 new residents will move to Metro Vancouver each year — up from the historical average of 35,000.
Metro Vancouver is now expected to reach the population milestone of four million by 2045 — nine years earlier than previously projected.
Under the medium-growth scenario, the number of homes in the region will rise from 1.093 million in 2021 to 1.324 million in 2030, 1.539 million in 2040, and 1.72 million in 2050.
Over the same period, between 2021 and 2050, the number of homes will grow from 321,000 units to 477,000 units in Vancouver, from 195,000 units to 317,000 units in Surrey, from 106,000 to 165,000 in Burnaby, from 19,600 to 28,400 in West Vancouver, and from 8,000 to nearly 24,000 in the combined UBC and UEL area.
When it comes to the growth in employment, Metro Vancouver’s number of jobs under the medium-growth scenario would climb from 1.438 million in 2021 to 2.09 million in 2050.
Vancouver would continue to lead the region in employment, rising from 468,000 jobs in 2021 to 613,000 jobs in 2050, followed by Surrey’s growth from 212,000 in 2021 to 359,000 in 2050. Each year, the region is expected to see 22,500 net new jobs. However, the proportion of the region’s jobs found within Vancouver would continue to fall from 25% in 2021 to 23.5% in 2050, with jurisdictions such as Surrey gaining a higher share.
Population growth scenarios
2024 forecast for Metro Vancouver population growth, low-growth scenario. (Metro Vancouver Regional District)
2024 forecast for Metro Vancouver population growth, medium-growth scenario. (Metro Vancouver Regional District)
2024 forecast for Metro Vancouver population growth, high-growth scenario. (Metro Vancouver Regional District)
Residential unit growth scenarios
2024 forecast for Metro Vancouver residential unit growth, low-growth scenario. (Metro Vancouver Regional District)
2024 forecast for Metro Vancouver residential unit growth, medium-growth scenario. (Metro Vancouver Regional District)
2024 forecast for Metro Vancouver residential unit growth, high-growth scenario. (Metro Vancouver Regional District)
Job growth scenarios
2024 forecast for Metro Vancouver employment growth, low-growth scenario. (Metro Vancouver Regional District)
2024 forecast for Metro Vancouver employment growth, medium-growth scenario. (Metro Vancouver Regional District)
2024 forecast for Metro Vancouver employment growth, high-growth scenario. (Metro Vancouver Regional District)