North Shore-Metrotown SkyTrain would see 120,000 riders daily: study

The use of SkyTrain technology for the North Shore rapid transit line is the clear winner in terms of potential ridership and speed, exceeding the figures of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and street-level Light Rail Transit (LRT).

The District of North Vancouver recently commissioned and funded two highly technical studies exploring the ridership potential of various modes of rapid transit, and the possibility of a multi-modal replacement of the aging Ironworkers Memorial Bridge.

In 2023, on behalf of the municipal government, transportation consultancy firm McElhanney completed an updated ridership study that compared the potential of SkyTrain, BRT, and LRT, while Spannovation Consulting performed an analysis of the optimal options to replace the existing Highway 1 bridge in the Second Narrows.

McElhanney’s latest study builds on their previous 2021 analysis on the Burrard Inlet Rapid Transit initiative jointly led by the North Shore’s three municipal governments and two First Nations, which was a process that identified the “Gold” and “Purple” lines. Some of Spannovation’s most recent major works entail contributing to the planning efforts of the new replacement Pattullo Bridge.

For each of the SkyTrain, BRT, and LRT scenarios examined, the same rapid transit route was used — a 19.5-km-long route beginning at Park Royal in West Vancouver, which then runs west-east across the North Shore along Marine Drive, 3rd Street, and Main Street.

Upon reaching Phibbs Exchange near the northern end of the Ironworkers Memorial Bridge, the route turns south across the Second Narrows and reaches Hastings Park/PNE in Vancouver. It then briefly runs along Hastings Street before turning south along Willingdon Avenue for the remaining journey to Metrotown.

In each of the three scenarios, there would be a total of 10 stations located in the general vicinity of Park Royal, Lions Gate (at Capilano Road and Marine Drive), Capilano Mall (on Marine Drive), Lonsdale (on 3rd Street), Moodyville (on 3rd Street), Phibbs Exchange, Hastings Park/PNE (on Hastings Street), Brentwood Town Centre Station (connecting with SkyTrain Millennium Line), BCIT Burnaby campus (on Willingdon Avenue), and Metrotown Station (connecting with SkyTrain Expo Line).

Travel time of 23 minutes on SkyTrain

By 2050, BRT would have a ridership of 41,000 boardings per day — equivalent to the present day ridership of the 99 B-Line, Metro Vancouver’s busiest bus route. It would have an end-to-end travel time of 58 minutes and an average operating speed of 20 km/hr, based on frequencies similar to TransLink’s existing B-Line and RapidBus routes and the use of articulated buses. Its maximum capacity is about 1,300 passengers per hour per direction.

Street-level LRT would have a ridership of 100,000 boardings per day, with an end-to-end travel time of 47 minutes and an average operating speed of about 25 km/hr. With frequencies of up to every four minutes during peak periods and six minutes during mid-day periods, using LRT trains that can hold about 300 people, the maximum capacity of LRT is about 4,500 passengers per hour per direction.

To achieve BRT or LRT on the North Shore, the vast majority of the Marine Drive and 3rd Street corridor would be reduced to one general traffic vehicle lane in each direction to accommodate the bus-only lanes or LRT right-of-way in each direction.

Similarly, there would also be lane reductions for the roadways of Hastings Street and Willingdon Avenue.

As BRT or LRT would not have its own fully separated right-of-way, running through intersections, its maximum travel speed is limited to the same speed limits of general vehicle traffic.

Potential road design change concepts necessary for BRT and LRT:

On the same route and with the same station placements, fully grade-separated driverless SkyTrain would have the highest ridership of 120,000 boardings per day, an end-to-end travel time of 23 minutes between Park Royal and Metrotown, and an average operating speed of 50 km/hr. This is under half the travel time and average operating speed of BRT or LRT.

SkyTrain would also have the most competitive travel times compared to the private vehicle. During the morning peak period, for instance, between Park Royal and Metrotown Station via Upper Levels Highway and the Ironworkers Memorial Bridge, the travel time by car currently greatly varies from 20 to 45 minutes, depending on traffic conditions, according to Google maps.

With trains running every two minutes during peak periods and five minutes during mid-day periods, the SkyTrain option would have a maximum capacity of about 12,000 passengers per hour per direction.

The estimated ridership of the SkyTrain option is comparable to the current ridership of the entire 19-km-long SkyTrain Canada Line, which saw 2023 averages of 120,400 per weekday, 100,000 per Saturday, and 84,000 per Sunday/holiday. The SkyTrain option’s capacity is also similar to the future operational capacity of the Canada Line.

Analysts suggest BRT does not have sufficient long-term capacity to meet 2050 demand, whereas SkyTrain could be “overbuilt.” LRT is suggested to be the “right level of capacity,” although it would reach crush capacity at the busiest segments by 2050.

At the same time, it should be noted that the new rapid transit investment is expected to catalyze significant high-density residential and commercial developments — often to a far greater extent not originally imagined, based on the region’s experiences with transit-oriented development around existing SkyTrain lines. TransLink anticipates major capacity relief measures will be needed for the Expo Line and Canada Line in the 2050s, when both systems are forecast to reach their respective ultimate design capacities.

There are major development opportunities along the rapid transit route, including significantly sized First Nations reserves on the North Shore immediately adjacent to likely station locations.

Strongest ridership at Brentwood, BCIT, and Metrotown

For any of the three technologies, significant volumes are expected to board the new rapid transit line at the Millennium Line’s Brentwood Town Centre Station and the Expo Line’s Metrotown Station, and for accessing the BCIT Burnaby campus. This is particularly the case for LRT or SkyTrain.

For example, at the new rapid transit line’s southernmost terminus of Metrotown Station, during the morning peak period westbound towards Park Royal, about 1,200 boardings per hour are expected for BRT, about 3,000 boardings per hour are expected for LRT, and about 4,000 boardings per hour are expected for SkyTrain. Metrotown Station would be the new line’s busiest station.

Route and station map for Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and street-level Light Rail Transit (LRT) options:

Route and station map for the SkyTrain concept:

At BCIT Burnaby Station during the eastbound afternoon peak period, BRT would see nearly 800 boardings per hour, and both LRT and SkyTrain would similarly see about 1,500 boardings per hour.

At Brentwood Town Centre Station during the eastbound morning peak period, BRT would see 1,500 exits per hour, LRT would see 1,100 exits per hour, and SkyTrain would see 1,500 exits per hour.

During the eastbound afternoon peak period, Lonsdale Station would see about 400 boardings per hour for BRT, 900 boardings per hour for LRT, and 1,100 boardings per hour for SkyTrain.

From the new rapid transit line’s westernmost terminus of Park Royal Station, during the eastbound afternoon peak period, BRT would see 300 boardings per hour, LRT would see 700 boardings per hour, and SkyTrain would see 1,100 boardings per hour.

In terms of providing North Shore residents with greater job access opportunities within a 60-minute public transit trip, BRT provides access to only 20,000 additional jobs, LRT provides access to 97,000 additional jobs, and SkyTrain provides access to 180,000 jobs. Similarly, SkyTrain is more likely to reduce personal vehicle use compared to LRT and especially BRT.

Each of the three options could also put a dent to future SeaBus ridership between Lonsdale Quay in North Vancouver and Waterfront Station in downtown Vancouver, which is currently a 12-minute ride each way, with frequencies ranging between every 10 and 30 minutes depending on the time of day.

If the status quo were to remain without new rapid transit, SeaBus ridership would reach 32,000 boardings per day by 2050. But this would fall to 25,000 per day with BRT, 16,000 per day with LRT, and 15,000 per day with SkyTrain.

In 2023, average SeaBus ridership reached 16,000 boardings per weekday, 17,000 boardings per Saturday, and 13,000 boardings per Sunday/holiday — down from the pre-pandemic 2019 volumes of 19,900 per weekday, 16,900 per Saturday, and 13,000 per Sunday/holiday.

Here is a summary comparing the key performance statistics of the BRT, LRT, and SkyTrain options:

• Bus Rapid Transit (BRT):
  • Average daily ridership: 41,000 boardings per day
  • Average end-to-end travel time: 58 minutes
  • Average operating speed: 20 km/hr
  • Maximum capacity: 1,300 passengers per hour per direction
  • New job access from North Shore: 20,000
• Light Rail Transit (LRT):
  • Average daily ridership: 100,000 boardings per day
  • Average end-to-end travel time: 47 minutes
  • Average operating speed: 25 km/hr
  • Maximum capacity: 4,500 passengers per hour per direction
  • New job access from North Shore: 98,000
• SkyTrain:
  • Average daily ridership: 120,000 boardings per day
  • Average end-to-end travel time: 23 minutes
  • Average operating speed: 50 km/hr
  • Maximum capacity: 12,000 passengers per hour per direction
  • New job access from North Shore: 180,000

The analysis did not provide any construction cost estimates, but it can be assumed that SkyTrain would carry the highest upfront cost given its fully grade-separated configuration and the use of driverless automation.

TransLink previously indicated that each of its first three BRT routes, including the Park Royal-Metrotown route, could cost between $250 million and $300 million. The various studies performed to date at different occasions are intended to help determine the longer term permanent solution after the “interim” BRT solution — whether LRT or SkyTrain should be pursued.

Within the nearer term, TransLink has plans to provide the existing R2 Marine Drive RapidBus between Park Royal and Phibbs Exchange with a southward route extension to Brentwood and Metrotown, following the identified potential future BRT route.

It is noted that a new replacement Ironworkers Memorial Bridge with more vehicle lanes would decrease the rapid transit ridership potential. For instance, a new bridge that fully replaces Highway 1’s six vehicle lanes (three lanes in each direction) and provides two eastbound-only collector-distributor lanes (non-highway local lanes) would decrease the LRT ridership to 94,000 boardings per day.

A new multi-modal Ironworkers Memorial Bridge

The 1960-built Ironworkers Memorial Bridge — part of Highway 1, and one of the only two Burrard Inlet crossings directly linking the majority of Metro Vancouver with the North Shore, BC Ferries’ Horseshoe Bay terminal, and the Sea to Sky Corridor — will reach the end of its lifespan over the coming decades.

Moreover, the structure has seismic risks and is vulnerable to ship impacts that could result in a catastrophic failure. It is noted that in a post-disaster scenario where the Ironworkers Memorial Bridge is closed, emergency goods movement across Burrard Inlet would be immensely challenging, given that the Lions Gate Bridge has strict vehicle weight restrictions — and this assumes the Lions Gate Bridge is not similarly impacted by a broader regional disaster, such as a powerful earthquake.

Currently, the six-lane Ironworkers Memorial Bridge sees an average of about 125,000 vehicles per day, with up to 140,000 vehicles per day during the summer and 120,000 vehicles per day during the winter. The Ironworkers Memorial Bridge, Lions Gate Bridge, and George Massey Tunnel are the busiest and most congested crossings in BC, with volumes of about 20,000 vehicles per lane per day.

The construction of the Ironworker Memorial Bridge over six decades ago was the North Shore’s last major transportation investment.

The analysis suggests the possibility of a new replacement Ironworker Memorial Bridge with additional vehicle lanes and multi-modal uses for rapid transit and active transportation could be built in two phases.

One concept calls for twin side-by-side cable-stayed bridges, with the first bridge consisting of LRT/SkyTrain tracks, pedestrian and cyclist pathways, and two eastbound-only collector-distributor lanes (non-highway local lanes) between Main Street in North Vancouver and Hastings Street in Vancouver. It is estimated the collector-distributor lanes could see volumes of 25,000 vehicles per day.

The second cable-stayed bridge would be built in a second phase, providing a one-for-one replacement of the existing bridge’s six general vehicle lanes.

An alternative concept calls for a new stacked bridge, with the first phase completing the upper deck — LRT/SkyTrain tracks, pedestrian and cyclist pathways, and two eastbound-only collector-distributor lanes (non-highway local lanes). The second phase would complete a lower deck to provide six replacement general vehicle lanes. This alternative concept would feature an arch-supported truss main span — Metro Vancouver’s first non-cable bridge design for a key arterial road crossing in many decades.

Both concepts would be built just to the west of the existing bridge, with the phased approach intended to provide the minimum of a resilient emergency route to the North Shore sooner than later.

The stacked bridge concept would carry a smaller footprint, but the twin cable-stayed bridge concept could carry a lower construction cost.

The provincial government is expected to begin soon the preliminary planning process for identifying potential concepts for renewing or replacing the crossing.

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Should the North Shore rapid transit project use BRT, LRT, or SkyTrain technology? What kind of replacement crossing should be built for the Ironworkers Memorial Bridge? Let us know in the comments below.

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