The Vancouver Canucks have drawn the Nashville Predators in Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. No word yet on if they’ve asked Ryan Kesler to come out of retirement.
It’s been 13 years since the Canucks and Predators faced off in their only playoff battle. The only two players still in the NHL from either of those teams are Ryan Suter and Chris Tanev, who ironically are now teammates with the Dallas Stars.
While the 2024 Canucks were near the top of the league all season long, the Predators needed a second-half surge in order to secure their postseason berth.
Back on February 15, the Predators got spanked 9-2 by the Stars and sat outside of the playoffs. That prompted the team to cancel a planned trip to see U2 at the Sphere in Vegas.
After that, Nashville went on a 16-0-2 run, firmly entrenching their grip on a playoff spot.
So, who holds the upper hand between these two surprise playoff teams? Let’s break it down.
Forwards
Vancouver has more star power up front, but don’t discount the Predators’ forwards.
Nashville’s top line of Filip Forsberg, Ryan O’Reilly, and Gustav Nyquist has been dominant this season. Forsberg finished the season with 48 goals, good for sixth in the NHL. O’Reilly turned back the clock with 69 points.
Hats off to Filip Forsberg! 🎩 pic.twitter.com/RoGvURlv4y
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) April 13, 2024
There’s an argument that Nyquist was the NHL’s most underrated playmaker this season. The 34-year-old finished the season with a career-high 75 points.
Behind them, Nashville has some younger players like Tommy Novak, Luke Evangelista, and Kiefer Sherwood, who have been productive.
Regardless, up front is where the Canucks should have an advantage, especially down the middle.
Nashville’s top three centres are O’Reilly, Colton Sissons, and Novak. The Canucks have J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson and Elias Lindholm. Vancouver’s secondary forwards have also been slightly more productive than Nashville’s.
Edge: Vancouver
Defence
Everyone in Vancouver knows how good Quinn Hughes is. He’ll likely become the first Canuck to ever win the Norris Trophy.
Roman Josi could end up being a finalist for the Norris as well. His 85 points this season trails only Hughes and Cale Makar.
Both teams boast excellent top pairs, with Filip Hronek riding shotgun with Hughes, while 34-year-old Ryan McDonough has defied father time as is still performing like an elite shutdown defenceman.
The Canucks have more size in their bottom-four on defence, but the Predators boast two of the best hitters in the NHL with former Canuck Luke Schenn and Jeremy Lauzon. There’s also an argument that the Predators have better puck movers on defence, thanks to guys like Dante Fabbro and Alexandre Carrier.
Still, when it comes to actually defending, the Canucks have allowed fewer goals against and scoring chances against than the Predators this season.
Edge: Vancouver
Goaltending
Predators netminder Juuse Saros is one of the best goaltenders in the league. He leads the NHL in games played over the last three seasons and was a Vezina finalist as recently as 2021-22.
However, a cold start from Saros was part of the reason why Nashville was stuck in the mushy middle for most of the season. The Finnish netminder has turned it on of late, going 15-3-3 with a .916 save percentage during the Predators’ turnaround.
There’s no doubt that Saros and Canucks goalie Thatcher Demko are two of the best goalies in the world. However, Demko has arguably been the second-best goalie in the NHL this season, while Saros has been just slightly above average.
Some saves deserve the full video of it. They cannot be gif’d.
Demko with the save of his season. pic.twitter.com/f4VPpLFY26
— Wyatt Arndt (@TheStanchion) November 5, 2023
Edge: Vancouver
Power Play
Based on talent, this is where the Canucks should have an advantage.
Unfortunately, that’s not the case.
Nashville has had one of the hottest power plays in the league down the stretch. Since the All-Star break, the Predators have the league’s second-most potent man advantage, clicking at 27.2%. Over that same time frame, the Canucks power play ranks 25th in the NHL (18.3%).
Edge: Nashville
Penalty Kill
Both teams are fairly close in terms of penalty kill success rate. The Canucks are 20th in the NHL (78.8%) while the Predators are 22nd (76.9%).
By most metrics however, the Canucks have the superior kill. At four-on-five, they’ve allowed fewer goals against and high danger chances against than the Predators. Demko also has one of the best shorthanded save percentages in the league (.894, 8th in the NHL).
Edge: Vancouver
Experience
Vancouver might have experience behind the bench, but Nashville certainly has more playoff experience on their roster.
Only Corey Perry (196) has played in more playoff games than McDonough (185) among active NHLers. Forsberg and Josi, Nashville’s two leading scorers during their run to the 2017 Cup Final, are still the backbone of this team. Sissons, the North Vancouver native, was also a part of that run.
On top of that, O’Reilly won the Conn Smythe as he helped the Blues win the Stanley Cup in 2019.
The Canucks have some playoff experience on their roster, but among the core players of this team, there isn’t much experience outside the bubble run in 2020. J.T. Miller has three goals and 26 points in 61 games during his playoff experiences with the Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Rangers. Ian Cole is the most experienced postseason veteran on the roster, with his 116 playoff games played ranking 29th among active NHLers.
Edge: Nashville
Overcoming their lack of postseason experience is arguably the Canucks biggest hurdle. If they can accomplish that, this team could continue surprising people, as they’ve done all season long.