Would British Columbia be better off as its own independent sovereign country instead of being a province of Canada?
The findings of a new survey by Research Co. suggest that a growing number of BC residents, albeit a minority, think their province would be better off.
The survey, conducted from January 10 to 12, 2025, shows that 28% of BC residents agree with such an outcome, which is an 8% increase from the support level of 20% in a similar survey in August 2023.
Support levels are highest within Metro Vancouver and Northern BC, with each region polling at 30%.
A majority of BC residents still disagree, with the latest survey indicating that 60% believe becoming a sovereign country would not be better. But this is a notable 12% drop from the last survey in August 2023.
A majority of BC residents (62%) still consider themselves to be “Canadians first, British Columbians second,” while 25% assert they are “British Columbians first, Canadians second.”
Younger residents are more likely to support sovereignty. Only 16% of residents aged 55 and over think BC would be better off as its own country, but the support rises to 34% for those aged 35 to 54 and 37% for those aged 18 to 34.
Moreover, BC residents who voted for the Conservative Party of BC or the Green Party of BC in the October 2024 provincial election are more likely to hold favourable views about nationhood than those who voted for the BC NDP.
A stronger majority of residents or 79% are very proud of their province, with 64% believing their views are different from the rest of the country.
Also, 60% believe BC residents have more in common with the Pacific Northwest residents of Seattle and Portland than those of Eastern Canada in Toronto and Montreal. At 62%, this belief is highest in Metro Vancouver.
This representative survey had a margin of error of +/- 3.%, 19 times out of 20.
All of this comes at a time of political and economic stability, with an imminent change in the Canadian federal government’s political leadership and poor Canadian economic fundamentals greatly exacerbated by US President Donald Trump’s threats of a 25% tariff on all Canadian imports into the United States, which could begin as early as February 1, 2025.
As well, Trump has suggested he would use “economic force” to turn Canada into the “51st state” of the US.
A separate survey conducted by Angus Reid earlier this month suggests residents in Alberta seem to be the most open to the concept of Canada joining the United States.
Last week, the Government of BC warned the Trump tariffs and resulting two-way trade war between Canada and the US could result in a cumulative loss of $69 billion in economic activity in BC over the four years between 2025 and 2028, with the province’s real gross domestic product (GDP) falling by 0.6% year-over-year in both 2025 and 2026.
Furthermore, 124,000 jobs would be lost in BC over the coming years through 2028, with the largest declines experienced in the natural-resource sector export industries and associated manufacturing, as well as in the transportation and retail sectors. In contrast, the total number of COVID-19-related job losses by June 2020 — three months into the pandemic — was 235,000.
Trump’s tariff would also create a real dent in the provincial government’s revenues, with the preliminary analysis estimating it could reduce annual revenues by between $1.6 billion and $2.5 billion.