How exactly should new housing supply progress be measured?
Under the Government of British Columbia’s new Housing Supply Act, municipal governments across the province under target orders are required to track the number of net new homes that reach a state of completion for resident occupancy readiness.
However, City of Vancouver staff are strongly pushing back on using the provincial metric of completions as the primary measurement and are instead recommending the continued use of the number of approvals as the municipal government’s main measurement for tracking supply conditions, developing policy, and planning. However, the municipal government would still provide separate completions reporting to fulfill its legislated requirements of regularly reporting to the provincial government on its progress of achieving the target order.
City staff listed development pipeline factors that are out of their control, including the construction industry’s capacity to achieve more projects, construction cost inflation, and the ability to find the necessary financing to cover land, construction, and other project costs, especially within the current high-interest environment. As a case in point, this week, the municipal government is reviewing four separate requests for extended deadlines for payments for rezoning enactments from condominium developers due to weak market conditions.
“Although the Provincial target measures net completions, Staff recommend continuing to use approvals as a measure, but will also track completions to comply with Provincial requirements. Municipalities have the most control over approvals and the ability to expedite permitting processes,” reads a new City staff report.
“Measuring approvals allows the City to be more nimble in making policy adjustments that respond to changing market conditions, rather than waiting years for projects to be completed before outcomes are evaluated.”
In addition to preferences in metrics, City staff are recommending a longer horizon for tracking progress. They recommend continuing to use a 10-year horizon for tracking the progress of approvals instead of using the provincial government’s five-year horizon for completions.
According to City staff, of the five-year horizon of the provincial target orders of completion that were to be the sole method for tracking, most multi-family projects — such as within condominiums, townhouses, and larger secured purpose-built rental housing buildings — expected to be complete within the next five years have already been approved, are under construction, or are going through the application process. This will likely result in completions counted in the next five-year provincial horizon cycle for completions.
Furthermore, City staff state that the municipal government must approve a higher number of new homes to achieve the provincial government’s target for net new completions for the City.
The provincial government’s target orders for the City of Vancouver over the five-year horizon from October 2023 to September 2028 require the net completion of 28,900 new homes, including 8,015 ownership homes and 20,886 secured purpose-built rental homes, with the rental component entailing 12,992 market rental units and 7,894 below-market rental units.
Within these totals, there are also unit size mix considerations, with the provincial government stipulating 3,001 studio or one-bedroom units, 5,231 two-bedroom units, and 6,209 units with three or more bedrooms.
The provincial government’s cumulative targets for the City of Vancouver over this initial five-year horizon have been established at 5,202 units for the first year, 10,597 units for the second year, 16,281 units for the third year, 22,349 units for the fourth year, and 28,900 units for the fifth year.
City staff forecast that the provincial government’s target of 22% of all new completed housing containing three or more bedrooms will not be met, which is intended to support larger families.
“Engagement with industry and multiple rounds of economic testing have shown that increasing the number of three-bedrooms, especially in rental buildings, significantly impacts project viability,” state City staff.
Instead, City staff are recommending their updated approval targets to aim for 14% of units to have three bedrooms, which is based on recent development trends in new secured purpose-built rental housing and ownership housing. This also aligns with current housing size mix policies that generally encourage 25% of the apartment units with two bedrooms and 10% of the units with three or more bedrooms.
It is also noted that while the City has the policy tools to catalyze a significant increase in the number of market rental housing and ownership housing units, it struggles with generating more affordable units — not just social housing for low-income households at deeply affordable rates at or below Housing Income Limits but also affordable rental housing for households earning below $90,000 for individuals and $150,000 for families.
According to City staff, about $6 billion in equity over 10 years to build enough affordable rental homes and social housing to meet targets — and this area requires significantly more financial support from both the provincial and federal governments.
“It is not feasible for the City and its senior government and non-profit partners to meet the Provincial guidance on the number of affordable rental homes with rents set at or below the Housing Income Limits (HILs) 1 without commitment from senior governments to provide capital grants and low-cost financing to deliver on the target affordability,” state City staff.
Based on these input factors, the City of Vancouver has created a new 10-year Housing Vancouver target of approvals from 2024 to 2033, which will replace the existing 10-year Housing Vancouver approvals target from 2018 to 2027, enacted by the last Vision Vancouver-led City Council in 2017.
The City’s new 10-year Housing Vancouver targets aim to catalyze 83,000 new approvals — exceeding the previous 10-year Housing Vancouver targets of 72,000 by 15%. This includes 49,500 non-ownership homes, including 30,000 secured market rental units (36% of total), 5,500 secured below-market rental units (7%), 4,000 laneway units as secured rental homes (5%), 8,500 non-profit/co-op/social housing (10%), and 1,500 supportive housing units (2%). Another 26,500 units would be strata market condominium housing (32%), and 7,000 units would be townhouses, multiplexes, coach houses, and duplexes (8%). The aim through 2033 is for over 40% of the new homes to have two or more bedrooms suitable for families, including over 18,700 family-sized non-ownership units and over 15,500 family-sized ownership units.
Comparison of Housing Vancouver 10 Year Target with Provincial Housing Target Order. (City of Vancouver)
10-year Housing Vancouver approval target achievements from 2018 to 2027, as of the end of 2023. (City of Vancouver)
In contrast, the previous 10-year Housing Vancouver targets through 2027 set a goal of 20,000 secured rental homes (market and below-market combined), 30,000 strata market condominium homes, 4,000 laneway houses, 6,000 townhouses and coachhouses, and 12,000 social housing and supportive housing units.
As of the end of 2023, the sixth year of the previous 10-year Housing Vancouver targets, the City has recorded a cumulative grand total of 55,948 home approvals, which accounts for 78% of the goal of 72,000 new home approvals. This includes 17,613 secured rental homes (88% of cumulative target), 23,382 strata market condominiums (78%), 3,170 laneway houses (79%), 2,632 townhouses and coachhouses (44%), and 9,151 social housing and supportive housing units (76%).
For 2023 alone, the City approved a total of 7,818 homes, exceeding its annual goal of 7,200 for an achievement rate of 109%. This includes 4,631 secured rental homes (232% of annual target), 1,478 strata market condominiums (49%), 296 laneway houses (74%), 225 townhouses and coachhouses (38%), and 1,221 social housing and supportive housing units (102%).
Additionally, City staff are also recommending a three-year housing action plan from 2024 to 2026 of various policies and strategies to catalyze more housing, including planning for accommodating more homes, geographic equity, homelessness, community housing, Indigenous housing, rental housing, and addressing speculation.
This week, the Vancouver City Council is expected to approve City staff’s various recommendations, including the new 10-year Housing Vancouver approval targets through 2033 and the three-year housing action plan through 2026.
According to the provincial government’s population estimates, the City of Vancouver’s population is expected to grow from about 726,000 in 2023 to almost 774,000 by 2028 and nearly 823,000 by 2033. Over the same period, the number of households in Vancouver will go up from 314,200 in 2023 to just over 338,000 by 2028 and 360,700 by 2033.