The Vancouver Canucks have just three games left in the regular season. With a home playoff game on the schedule for the first time since 2015, it’s still not clear who their first-round opponent will be.
The Canucks are overwhelmingly likely to play against one of the Nashville Predators, Los Angeles Kings, or Vegas Golden Knights in that opening series. While it’s mathematically possible for them to play the St. Louis Blues, there’s less than a 1% chance of that scenario playing out.
While it could be any of the three teams mentioned above, the standings are starting to shake out and solidify themselves. This means that we can start to make some educated predictions on which team the Canucks will play.
There are two spots that the Canucks could still finish in, either first or second in the Pacific Division. The result of Saturday night’s game against the Edmonton Oilers will play a massive role in determining which team finishes where.
If the Canucks take the two points up for grabs on Saturday, they will become the overwhelming favourite to win the division and thus likely face the team in the best Wild Card spot as the top spot in the conference looks unlikely.
That team is currently the Predators, and they have the inside edge to keep it. They’re three points up on the Golden Knights, although the Nevada-based chasers do have a game in hand. The Predators face the lowly Chicago Blackhawks and Columbus Blue Jackets in their last few games.
There are two spots that the Canucks could still finish in, either first or second in the Pacific Division. The result of Saturday night’s game against the Edmonton Oilers will play a massive role in determining which team finishes where.
The odds given by various hockey analytics sites back this up. You can see in the table below that if the Canucks finish with 109 points or better, they’ll likely win the division and have an overwhelming chance of playing the Predators.
SportsClubStats.com
More hockey analytics sites are also giving the Canucks a greater than 50% chance of facing the Predators in the first round. If you look at the odds from PlayoffStatus, they’re giving the Canucks an 80% chance of facing the Kings.
PlayoffStatus.com
If the Canucks lose on Saturday night to the Oilers, there’s a strong possibility they will finish second place in the Pacific Division. This means that they would likely face the Kings in the first round as they sit third in the division. While the Kings could still be caught by the Golden Knights, the third-place team has a relatively easy schedule over the last few games as they play the Blackhawks and Anaheim Ducks.
While it’s too early to call it just yet, the math suggests that we are close to eliminating the Golden Knights as a first-round opponent.
It’s becoming less and less likely that the Canucks will play the Golden Knights in the first round. Instead, it’s looking like last year’s Stanley Cup champions will face off against a Central Division team in the first round while the Canucks will face one of the Kings or Predators.