The Government of British Columbia announced today the housing supply target orders for the second set of 10 cities over five years through 2029, bringing the total number of cities with housing supply target orders to 20 municipal governments.
This includes the City of Surrey, which is now given a target order of 27,256 units over the next five years.
These target orders under the 2023-approved Housing Supply Act do not track municipal approvals, as they actually instead measure the number of net new housing unit completions for occupancy, with the provincial government strongly encouraging municipal governments to develop policies and strategies that push projects towards the final stage of the development pipeline.
As BC’s second-largest city, Surrey’s target order is just behind the City of Vancouver, which was given a target order of 28,900 units over five years in September 2023.
According to provincial statistics, as of 2023, the City of Surrey’s population reached 662,561 residents, while the City of Vancouver’s was 725,778. Based on population growth forecasts, the City of Surrey is expected to become BC’s most populated city in 2029, when it reaches 785,619 residents and exceeds the City of Vancouver for the very first time.
However, each city’s housing target is actually based on a formula that takes into account the required supply to address the extreme core housing need, the supply to permanently house people experiencing homelessness, the supply to address suppressed household formation, the anticipated supply needed over the next five years, and the rental supply needed to return the rental vacancy rate to a healthy range of 3%. The targets also amount to a 38% increase in overall housing to be built in each jurisdiction over what was projected to have been created based on historic trends.
The other target orders in today’s announcement on the second set of cities over the next five years entail 3,954 units for the City of Maple Ridge, 3,320 units for the City of North Vancouver, and 1,067 units for the City of White Rock, as well as 8,774 units for the City of Kelowna, 4,594 units for the City of Chilliwack, 4,703 units for the City of Nanaimo, 754 units for the Township of Esquimalt, 588 units for the District Municipality of Central Saanich, and 468 units for the Town of Sidney.
So far, the City of Kelowna has the third-highest target order behind the municipalities of Vancouver and Surrey.
All 10 cities in this second set have a combined target order of 55,478 homes, which represents a 41% increase in overall housing compared to historical trends. The City of Surrey’s target order accounts for nearly half of the total. The five-year horizon for the second set of cities begins in July 2024 and ends in June 2029.
At the time of writing, the provincial government has not provided a detailed breakdown of the types of housing each city in the second set should generate, such as units by size (number of bedrooms per unit), units by tenure (rental vs. owned), and rental units by market rate (below-market, market, and supportive housing).
For example, when the first set of 10 cities was announced in September 2023, the City of Vancouver’s breakdown was noted to be 8,015 ownership homes and 20,886 secured purpose-built rental homes, including 12,992 market rental units and 7,894 below-market rental units. Within these totals, there are also unit size mix considerations, with the provincial government stipulating 3,001 studio or one-bedroom units, 5,231 two-bedroom units, and 6,209 units with three or more bedrooms. Another 583 of these units are requested to be supportive housing.
The annual targets for the City of Vancouver over a five-year period have been established at 5,202 units for the first year, 10,597 units for the second year, 16,281 units for the third year, 22,349 units for the fourth year, and 28,900 units for the fifth year.
Before the end of Summer 2024, the provincial government will release the target orders for 10 cities under the third set, including the major jurisdictions of the City of Langley, City of North Vancouver, City of New Westminster, and City of Port Coquitlam.
As part of today’s announcement, the provincial government also provided an update on the progress made towards achieving the annual target orders for each of the initial set of 10 cities. With the first six months now elapsed, the City of Vancouver appears to be behind its target order for the first year, with 31% of 5,202 units achieved.
The City of Victoria has already achieved its first-year target by 114% of 659 units. This is followed by the City of Port Moody with 90% of 231 units, the District of North Vancouver with 78% of 499 units, the City of Kamloops with 45% of 679 units, the District of Saanich with 44% of 440 units, the City of Abbotsford with 39% of 1,022 units, the City of Delta with 514 units, District of West Vancouver with 18% of 220 units, and the District of Oak Bay with 12.5% of 56 units. The first-year horizon for these cities ends in late September 2024.
“A few municipalities, such as Delta, the District of Oak Bay and the District of West Vancouver, are not making as much progress as expected,” reads today’s provincial release.
“These municipalities are encouraged to expedite their processes and comply with the new requirements to ensure that housing is being built where it’s needed. Compliance measures may be taken if satisfactory progress is not made by the time annual progress reports are made to ensure that municipalities are taking action to build homes for people as quickly as possible.”
Earlier this month, City of Vancouver staff indicated further progress on reaching the first-year target orders is expected to be made over the remaining six months of the first year through September 2024 and suggested the impacts of the current policies and strategies in place will not be reflected until the later years of the current five-year provincial target order horizon or into the next horizon after September 2028. They also blamed factors that are out of their control, such as market conditions, interest rates, and construction industry capacity.
As well, earlier this week, Vancouver City Council approved City staff’s new Housing Vancouver recommendations to catalyze 83,000 new home approvals over 10 years between 2024 and 2033, including significant non-ownership housing such as market rental housing and below-market rental housing. City staff also expressed an interest in continuing to use approvals as the primary measure for internal planning for creating policy.