With just under three months until British Columbians head to the polling stations for the October 2024 provincial general election, the gap in support appears to be narrowing between the BC NDP’s lead and the rising Conservative Party of BC.
A new July 2024 survey by Research Co. found that the Conservative Party of BC has continued its months-long trend of narrowing the previously large gap held by the governing BC NDP.
If the election were held right now, amongst decided voters, 41% would vote for the BC NDP, which saw a 1% increase compared to the company’s previous similar survey in June 2024.
On the other hand, the BC Conservatives are now at 38%, up by 5% compared to last month’s survey.
The BC Green Party’s support levels is now at 10% among decided voters after shedding 5% over the past month, while the BC United (former BC Liberals) also further dropped by 2% to 9%.
The BC NDP is ahead of the BC Conservatives in Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island by a margin of about 10%, while the BC Conservatives lead the BC NDP in the Fraser Valley and Northern BC by a wider margin of about 20% or more.
According to the survey, the BC NDP are most popular among women, decided voters aged 35 to 44, and aged 55 and over. The BC Conservatives are first among men and decided voters aged 18 to 34.
When it comes to public attitudes towards each party’s leaders, 48% approve BC NDP Premier David Eby, representing a 5% drop compared to the June 2024 survey, while 39% approve BC Conservatives party leader John Rustad, representing a 1% decrease. BC Greens party leader Sonia Furstenau has a support level of 35%, which is a 4% drop, while BC United party leader Kevin Falcon is at 29%, representing a 3% decline.
Amongst all respondents, housing, homelessness, and poverty are the most important issues, with 42% of respondents noting this as the top issue, up by 2%. This is followed by health care at 21% (+1%), the economy and jobs at 14% (-3%), the environment at 6% (+1%), and crime and public safety at 5% (-3%).
Supporters of the BC NDP and BC Greens are more likely to indicate housing, poverty, and homelessness are the most important issues facing the province today, while BC Green supporters are most likely to put less weight on healthcare, the economy, and jobs.
The survey was conducted from July 23 to 25, 2024, and had 801 respondents. Its margin of error is +/- 3.5% 19 times out of 20.
The election is scheduled for Saturday, October 19, 2024.
Driven by the rising popularity of the BC Conservatives over the former BC Liberals, it was also announced today that longtime MLA Teresa Wat for the riding of Richmond North Centre will switch allegiances from the BC United to the BC Conservatives. She will run in the riding of Richmond-Bridgeport in the upcoming election, which will see a rejigging of the riding boundaries.
“This was not an easy decision, but one that I have been contemplating for many months,” said Wat, who was first elected in Richmond in 2013, in a statement today.
“After countless conversations with the constituents in my riding of Richmond North Centre, it became clear that the number one priority I hear all day, every day, is that the BC NDP must be defeated in the next election. The cost of having the NDP in government, to our economy and to our society, is too high. It has also become clear that the best party to defeat the NDP is the BC Conservative Party.”