Analytics say Canucks don’t stand much of a chance against Oilers

The Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks are set to open up their second-round playoff series against each other this week, and one high-profile analytical model shows a clear favourite.

Despite the Canucks sweeping the season series against the Oilers, a model developed by The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn has Edmonton as the heavy favourite to defeat Vancouver and move on to the Western Conference Finals for the second time in three years.

Luszczyszyn has one of the most popular models in hockey right now, and it is currently giving the Oilers a steep 74% chance of beating the Canucks. This leaves Vancouver’s odds sitting at just 26%.

Luszczyszyn states that the Canucks lack the proper star power to line up against the likes of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Mattias Ekholm, and Evan Bouchard, as well as Edmonton, having better depth down the lineup.

The most likely scenario, according to the model, is that the Oilers will eliminate the Canucks in six games. The Canucks have just a 2% chance of sweeping Edmonton, while the Oilers have a 15% chance of pulling off the sweep. The model gives an equal 15% chance that Edmonton will win the series in seven games.

You would also have to think that injuries to Vancouver goaltenders Thatcher Demko and Casey DeSmith also play a role in the lopsided odds. This has prompted quite the reaction from Canucks fans, who believe their team stacks up better against the Oilers than the model seems to think.

To put these odds into perspective, Luszczyszyn’s model gave the LA Kings a 29% chance of beating the Oilers and the Nashville Predators 37% chance of beating the Canucks in the first round. Now, according to this model, Vancouver has worse odds than either the Kings and Predators did.

While nothing is certain in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, there is no doubt that this will be a series that every hockey fan will want to tune into.

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