The final tally is now in for the number of net new homes built within the City of Vancouver’s jurisdiction during the first year of the provincial government’s legislated Housing Targets Order under the Housing Supply Act.
And it falls below the established targets for the year by about 26%.
For the first-year period between October 1, 2023 and September 30, 2024, Vancouver recorded a total of 4,143 net new home completions in its jurisdiction, which accounts for units that were demolished but offset by new completions.
This includes 3,745 new secured purpose-built rental homes, 1,457 new ownership homes, and 104 new supportive housing units. The unit size mix achieved was 3,121 studio/one-bedroom units, 936 two-bedroom units, and 1,145 units with three or more bedrooms.
The realized figure is 1,059 units short of the provincial government’s target of 5,202 net new homes in Vancouver for the first year of the Housing Targets Order.
But according to City staff, this is merely a slow start, with the pace forecast to greatly accelerate over the coming years. In fact, City staff expect Vancouver will far exceed the five-year provincially legislated Housing Targets Order set for the city through September 2028.
Over the first five years of the Housing Targets Order through September 2028, the City of Vancouver is tasked with pushing a cumulative total of 28,900 net new homes to completion, with interim cumulative targets of 10,597 by September 2025, 16,281 by September 2026, and 22,349 by September 2027. Within these figures, the provincial government also specified targets for housing tenure type and unit size type.
However, by September 2028, City staff expect 33,700 net new homes will reach completion in Vancouver — exceeding the provincial target of 28,900 units by 4,800.
In a report outlining the first year’s full tally, City staff state the projects reaching completion in 2024 are primarily applications that began construction two to three years ago and were approved by the municipal government over the past five years or more. Therefore, the impact of housing projects and policy changes that were more recently approved and implemented will not be seen until the later years of the five-year target timeline through 2028 or the next provincial target order period.
It is noted by City staff that as of September 2024, there are currently about 58,100 homes in the development pipeline following a record number of rental approvals and building permits issued over the past two years. This includes 19,300 units recently approved (rezoning or development permit approvals) and about 13,700 units currently under construction, plus 3,200 units from low-density applications such as infills, duplexes, and multiplexes. These homes are expected to reach completion over the coming years.
As well, an additional 21,900 units will reach completion after 2028 from applications that are currently being reviewed by City staff.
It should be strongly emphasized that these development pipeline figures do not include any of the “Major Project Sites,” such as the Heather Lands, Jericho Lands, Pearson Dogwood, Langara Gardens, Oakridge Park, Mayfair West (Oakridge Transit Centre), and Skeena Terrace. Collectively, these Major Project Sites will generate tens of thousands of additional homes.
Currently, the provincial government is projecting Vancouver’s population will rise from about 732,600 in 2023 to 746,000 in 2024, 767,000 in 2028, and 801,000 in 2032.
It should also be noted that these new unit figures do not include the forthcoming completions of Squamish Nation’s Senakw project, which is currently well under construction; while Senakw is centrally located within Vancouver, it is on reserve and not within the municipal government’s jurisdiction. Half of Senakw, about 3,000 rental homes, will reach completion between 2025 and 2028.
The single largest housing project currently under construction within the municipal government’s jurisdiction is the new Oakridge Park mall (Oakridge Centre redevelopment). Starting in 2025 through the end of the decade, 3,000 homes — 1,000 of which will be rental units — at Oakridge Park will reach completion.
“We note a decline in completions over the last two years from 2022 to 2024, consistent with the overall trend in the region and with lower levels of housing starts during the COVID pandemic and its immediate aftermath,” state City staff.
Furthermore, the pace of projects entering construction and reaching completion is dependent on factors that are mostly out of the municipal government’s control, including the current construction financing challenges due to high interest rates, and market inflationary pressures on the cost of construction materials, labour, and equipment. With inflation now stabilized and the Bank of Canada showing clear signs that it will gradually reduce its policy interest rate, the number of projects proceeding into the construction phase is expected to grow.
In June 2024, as a strategy to complement the provincial government’s Housing Target Orders, Vancouver City Council approved City staff’s recommendations on establishing new 10-year housing targets based on municipal approvals, not completions. Between 2024 and 2033, the City will aim to achieve 83,000 net new home approvals.
To date, a total of 30 municipal governments across BC are under the provincial government’s Housing Target Orders.