Less than two weeks before British Columbians gather for Thanksgiving, not only are turkey prices up compared to last year but supply isn’t what it used to be.
Sylvain Charlebois, director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University, says prices for a whole turkey currently range from $1.65 to $2.80 a pound, or higher in B.C., which is among the most expensive in the country.
“That’s kind of how boards have been planning for this fall, thinking consumers will be looking for more deals and cheaper proteins and one of them is pork,” explained Charlebois.
“When you look at food expenses per capita in Canada, it’s down from last year so you can see a lot of people are just looking for bargains right now — aggressively. And turkey has always been seen as an expensive protein compared to other sources.”
Due to this, Charlebois thinks farmers don’t have as many whole birds available.
“Both in the U.S. and Canada, farmers tend to plan months ahead … and, of course, turkey demand is really tricky because a lot of it is concentrated into just a couple of months, compared to chicken or pork, and you don’t want to have too much turkey by the time you’re done with the year, going into the New Year. It’s a bit like dancing tango with the consumer.”
He adds turkey prices aren’t expected to come down as we inch closer to Thanksgiving. Instead, he expects the opposite.
As for Christmas, Charlebois stresses what consumers do now will affect prices in December.
“If there is more inventory as we head towards the holidays then perhaps, we may see deals in a couple of months from now. That’s the thing about food, you never know how consumers are going to react to prices, how they react to their financial reality.”
He says this year, avian flu appears to have less of an effect on supplies but is always hanging over the industry.
“You never know. An outbreak can happen any day and that could impact supplies … that’s why the avian flu is such a wildcard, especially out west. We’ve seen poultry prices go up significantly as a result, and also feed costs are a big problem too.”
Charlebois points out that turkey and chicken prices are among the highest in B.C. compared to the rest of the country. While he is mainly talking about whole turkeys, prices are also rising for other cuts of the lean bird.
Last month, 1130 NewsRadio broke down figures from Statistics Canada which showed a number of items at the grocery store were coming down in price across the country, except chicken and eggs in B.C.
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