British Columbia is inching closer to finding out who the next premier will be and the results on Oct. 19 may hinge on a few ridings that could go in a new direction.
Sanjay Jeram is a senior lecturer and chair of Graduate Studies in Political Science at Simon Fraser University.
He says the ridings that are most at play right now are Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, which is up for grabs after NDP MLA Fin Donnelly announced in the spring he was not seeking re-election.
Jeram says Vancouver-Point Grey, BC NDP Leader David Eby’s riding, will be one to watch closely.
“Because of the change of boundaries, this comes to mind, as a seat that’s interesting to watch even though he’s a favourite to win there,” Jeram explained.
He explains a handful of seats in Maple Ridge and Richmond could switch sides this time around.
“What I expect is some of the patterns of the past are going to hold where the Conservatives are strong, well outside of Metro Vancouver. And the NDP will be strong in Metro Vancouver, but we’re going to have some of the seats just mentioned, they’re really going to determine this election because of how close the popular vote is.”
Things could really take a turn based on voter turnout, he says.
“It’s not just a British Columbia phenomenon, but it’s across the country. I think we’ve reached a point where it feels like there’s definitely a malaise and a sense that, amongst part of the population, the Conservatives are tapping into that discontent with crime, affordability, and economy — these basic foundational issues that people care about.”
The BC NDP had been governing with a majority and if they win, Jeram doesn’t see them returning to Victoria the same way.
“They obviously stand to lose more,” said Jeram.
“It seems like the NDP has regained its momentum… and the Conservatives present an interesting possibility because we don’t know if they have new voters that they’re waiting to mobilize or if they’re relying on simply just those from BC United Party vote coming out.
“Because they do, especially in some of the seats that the NDP has held, they want to switch, I think they’re hoping and expecting that you’re going to have new voters that are engaged and energized by, even though they’re not saying this, Pierre Poilievre and the energy he’s mobilized in new voters and younger voters.”
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