As a longtime former public servant, Michael Wernick is listening when the Parti Québécois promises a third referendum on independence should it secure power in the next election.
He thinks Russia is, too.
“It presents an opportunity to disrupt and maybe even break up an important G7 country, so I’m sure they’re going to have a try,” said the former clerk of the Privy Council.
“It’s 32 years since the last one. It would now be fought on social media. It would be subject to cyber attacks. It would be subject to disinformation campaigns. It would look a lot more like the Brexit referendum of 2016 in Britain — only worse.”
While the threat of foreign interference in Canadian federal politics has garnered international headlines and triggered an ongoing public inquiry, it’s not the only target.
Canada’s spy agency has repeatedly warned about foreign interference happening at the provincial level. The National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians has also flagged provincial meddling as a concern, naming China and Pakistan as aggressors.
But the ability of the provinces and territories to respond to growing threats posed by foreign actors and domestic players is concerning, said Wernick, now the Jarislowsky Chair in Public Sector Management at the University of Ottawa.
“The electoral commissions and officers are often very, very small organizations that rev up every four years, and they wouldn’t have the ongoing capacity to deal with the new threats of cyber security and disinformation campaigns,” he said.
“I think with most threats, people are a little bit innocent and complacent until something happens.”
That capacity will be in the spotlight later this fall when voters in three provinces head to the polls: British Columbia, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick.
Elections are coming up in Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and B.C., with foreign interference posing a major threat. Canada’s spy agency has repeatedly warned about this risk, but provinces may not be prepared.
Laws vary across the country
Saskatchewan’s Chief Electoral Officer Michael Boda said with the growth of deep fakes and the speed with which disinformation can spread, one of his most important jobs this fall is maintaining trust in the electoral system.
“We need to remain vigilant,” he said in a recent interview.
Boda has been advocating for stronger powers to handle disinformation, but without much luck.
“From a legislative standpoint in Saskatchewan, we have very limited authority,” he said.
After the last provincial election, Boda made a series of recommendations to update legislation to give his office more power to address disinformation undermining the legitimacy of an election.
Had they been adopted, Boda would have been empowered to work with social media companies to remove incorrect information — that polls had been moved, for example — during an election. He also asked for new rules to prohibit intentionally impersonating political parties, candidates or his office.
“I don’t have that. So instead I come back to best practice and I have the power of the bully pulpit. I can be transparent about what is unfolding, and I will be doing that as we monitor what unfolds during the electoral process,” he said.
“We really cannot take the democratic traditions that we have for granted.”
Two provinces over, his British Columbia counterpart is dealing with similar threats — with a different-looking arsenal.
The provincial government has given B.C. Elections new powers to try to fight disinformation, including lies about the electoral process itself.
B.C. has novel takedown powers
B.C.’s Chief Electoral Officer Anton Boegman called the changes “very good for our democracy” in the face of heightened polarization and the threat of foreign meddling.
“I think these are real risks,” he said. “These activities could decrease trust in our elections, in our democratic institutions, or even suppress voter participation. Those are my concerns.”
For the first time, it will be illegal to make false statements about the election process in British Columbia, including disinformation about voting eligibility, dates, times and locations.
“B.C. provincial elections are on a Saturday, so some disinformation that voting takes place on a Monday, for example,” said Boegman.
During this fall’s campaign it will also be against the law to make false statements or spread lies that candidates have withdrawn or have criminal records.
Boegman believes two other changes to the B.C Election Act could make the biggest difference this year: new restrictions on unauthorized transmission of information, or in the misrepresentation of an election official or a political participant.
“Things like deep fake audio, video or images would be restricted in our elections,” he said. noting there will be exceptions for parody and satire.
Boegman’s office is also empowered to deal with issues quickly, and to levy significant penalties.
“Because of the very tight time frame within an election campaign and the potential harm that can be done for that sort of disinformation, we have the ability to issue notices to stop transmit to the platforms, as well as or to an individual who is posting content,” he said.
Social media platforms must comply as soon as possible — no later than 24 hours after receiving the notice from the chief electoral officer — with a notice to stop transmitting, or face fines of up to $50,000 a day.
Boegman said he expects other provinces — and the federal government — to be watching closely.
“We’re leading the way on this front, and I think all other Canadian election management bodies are eagerly awaiting … how does our election turn out and how effective were these tools?” he said.
On the other side of the country, Elections New Brunswick said it’s planning to launch a campaign next month to educate voters about the electoral processes and disinformation.
A spokesperson said they’re working with the Canadian Centre for Cyber Security to monitor for any threats ahead of Oct. 21, and are training officials internally on disinformation and deep fakes.
The Canadian Security Intelligence Service says it’s working with a special B.C. elections integrity working group to mitigate any potential threats.
In the spring, the federal government passed Bill C-70, which allows CSIS to share classified information outside the federal government.
“CSIS is committed to equipping elected officials to identify foreign interference threats and take measures to ensure their personal safety, including by providing briefings,” said John Townsend.
He said that means officials could brief New Brunswick and Saskatchewan if needed.
Canadians also behind disinformation
Media Ecosystem Observatory director Aengus Bridgman and his team monitor social media platforms for misinformation, polarization and foreign interference. They’ll be monitoring chatter around the B.C. election to study how misinformation shapes conversations during the election, and will flag any incidents.
He stressed that while foreign actors do produce and push misinformation, that’s “more the exception than the rule.”
“The rule is actually Canadian, kind of chronically online influencers or entities that are sharing, producing information that is misleading or outright false,” he said. “And are doing so for maybe monetary incentives, for clout, for attention and online spaces.”
The barriers to getting involved in a disinformation bot campaign are relatively low and can be set up relatively quickly, Bridgman said.
“This is something no one is really ready for, given the scope and scale and the rapidity with which some of these can be deployed and the difficulty in detection,” he said.
He’s like to see Parliament pass Bill C-65, which contains provisions on electoral interference including artificial intelligence. Bridgman is also calling for social media platforms to engage in what he calls “responsible behaviour,” and for better access to data for researchers.
Wernick believes protecting provincial election integrity should be something the Council of the Federation, composed of all 13 premiers, takes on as a priority.
For starters, he said provinces and territories could update current laws to at least meet the B.C. standard, and could also audit their cyber infrastructure.
He’d also like to see some kind of mutual assistance agreement whereby provinces that are not holding an election send help to those that are to boost their capacity, “kind of like the deals they already have in place on emergency management and forest fires,” he said.
“There’s no excuse for waiting.”