Enjoying the sunny skies over this past week? The second half of January is looking pretty clear for Vancouver standards, which is great news for aurora gazers. While it won’t be as powerful of a display as the northern lights Vancouver saw last May, there is auroral activity in the forecast for the end of the month.
What causes the northern lights?
According to Vancouver astronomer Rosanna Tilbrook at the H.R. MacMillan Space Centre, the sun is currently in its “solar maximum,” or a period of heightened activity.
“When the sun is in this active phase, we get more energetic events like coronal mass ejections, which hurl charged particles out into space. It is these charged particles coming from the sun that cause the aurora when they interact with Earth’s magnetic field and atmosphere.”
Dr. Tilbrook says that this cycle repeats around every 11 years, with the increase in solar activity leading to more frequent and powerful auroral displays. This makes them visible further south than usual!
Most recently, scientists measured some auroral activity around New Year’s Day, according to Dr. Tilbrook. This has led them to forecast more auroras for the end of January – though she notes that these predictions should be taken with a grain of salt.
“In general, auroras are quite difficult to forecast beyond about an hour before they occur,” says Dr. Tilbrook. That being said, it’s hard to ignore the possibility of a visible aurora dancing across Vancouver skies.
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High auroral activity
According to the University of Alaska Fairbanks, “high aurora activity” is forecasted for Friday, January 31, Saturday, February 1, and Sunday, February 2, 2025. This means there’s a solid chance of viewing the Northern Lights from Vancouver if the weather cooperates.
“If skies are clear, highly active auroral displays may be visible overhead from locations such as Inuvik, Yellowknife, Rankin and Iqaluit, Canada, to Juneau, Alaska, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Thunder Bay and Sept-Iles, Canada; and may be visible low on the horizon from Seattle, Des Moines, Chicago, Cleveland and Boston, US, and Halifax, Canada,” reads the forecast.
Photo via University of Alaska Fairbanks
How accurate are the 27-day and three-day forecasts?
Dr. Tilbrook notes that both the 27-day forecast and the three-day forecast can be unreliable, though accuracy is far more likely with the latter.
“It’s like knowing that a storm cloud is coming because we can see it on the horizon. However, it’s not always possible to predict which direction the storm is going in, how fast it is travelling, and how strong it will be once it hits. This all affects the accuracy of the three-day forecast.”
Dr. Tilbrook says that the 27-day forecast is based on the rotation period of the sun, which is roughly 27 days. Since some active regions on the sun can last for months, they rotate to face Earth many times as the sun spins. This means that if there was geomagnetic activity around 27 days ago, chances are high that there will be some activity on the 27th day of the cycle, or within the next few days.
A minor geomagnetic storm
The forecasted auroral activity is estimated to have a planetary K index of 5, which Dr. Tilbrook says indicates a minor geomagnetic storm that can produce “a nice aurora.” While these are fairly common, they pale in comparison to the impressive display Vancouver saw last May, which had a planetary K index of 9.
“For folks in Vancouver, the storm predicted for the end of January won’t be as dazzling as this, and will likely require clear weather and dark skies to view, should it occur.”
While it’s still too early to say if clear skies are slated for the weekend of January 31 to February 2, 2025, one thing is certain: the sun’s current state of increased activity means Vancouver could see some significant auroras this year — though only time will tell how strong and viewable they’ll be.
“Solar maximums aren’t always the same intensity, and our current cycle is more intense than the last,” Dr. Tilbrook adds.
Stay tuned for more info on this month’s forecasted Northern Lights display in Vancouver as it comes, including the upcoming three-day forecast and what to anticipate in terms of weather.
In the meantime, it’s a great idea to scope out some low-light areas and stargazing spots for your next gazing opportunity. And if you’re looking to get up close and personal with other celestial events to come, it’s worth heading to the Space Centre for a planetarium show or an evening at the observatory!