It’s anyone’s guess who may end up being the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party, but there are some familiar names rolling around on Monday after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation.
Trudeau’s decision comes after months of rampant speculation around his tenure and ongoing political turbulence.
Over the winter holiday break, Trudeau reflected on his future amid growing calls from his caucus to step down. On Monday morning, he met with Governor General Mary Simon and asked for the prorogation of Parliament until March 24.
“I’m a fighter; every bone in my body has always told me to fight because I care deeply about Canadians; I care deeply about this country,” said Trudeau.
“The fact is, despite best efforts to work through it, Parliament has been paralyzed for months after what has been the longest session for a minority government in Canadian history. I intend to resign as Party Leader and Prime Minister after the party selects its next leader following a national, robust, rigorous, and competitive process.”
Trudeau says he asked Liberal party president Sachit Mehra to launch a leadership race immediately.
Who will enter that leadership race is the biggest question remaining.
According to University of the Fraser Valley political science professor Hamish Telford, rumours of former B.C. premier Christy Clark’s intent to take the helm have been around for quite a while.
“Ms. Clark is quite serious about putting her name forward in the leadership race,” Telford told 1130 NewsRadio on Monday.
“The sure sign that she was serious about it reports have been that she’s been in Quebec working on her French. And so she’s obviously been working behind the scenes on this, and would almost almost certainly go through with it,” he explained.
But now that the job is becoming available, Telford isn’t convinced that her chances are particularly high.
“At the moment, there are bigger names likely to enter the race, with bigger national profiles than Christy Clark,” he said. “But it’s certainly an opportunity for her to raise her national profile.”
Among those set to look at the top job are former minister of finance Chrystia Freeland, current Minister of Finance Dominic LeBlanc, and former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney.
“With the Liberal Party’s base of support being in Toronto, in Montreal, I think Ms. Clark has some work to do to make inroads and build her base in that part of the country,” Telford said. Even if she does make inroads, if Clark doesn’t become successfully competent in both official languages, Telford says she won’t be considered a “serious” candidate by party members.
But assuming that her French is good, “what ideas does she bring to the table? One thing that we do know that she brings to the table is that she is an excellent campaigner. She exudes optimism and she loves campaigning. Everyone knows that about Christy Clark, but does she actually have ideas that will move the country forward at this very difficult time?” Telford asked.
“Does she have a strategy to deal with Donald Trump, for example, besides just her natural charm? And she is very charming, so I think that’s really what she would have to project to Liberals to be considered a serious contender.”
Telford anticipates that there could even be multiple leadership races in the coming years. “If she’s not successful this time, a bid this time could set her up for the next opportunity.”
Looking back at history, namely when Paul Martin lost to Stephen Harper, the Liberal Party had two leaders before Trudeau took over and brought them to electoral victory.
“When Stephen Harper resigned, the Conservatives had an interim leader, then two more leaders, until Pierre Poillievre started to get traction with the public. It tends to take some time for political parties now to rebuild after 10 years in office,” he said.
“The Liberal Party is very down in the polls. It’s been very badly damaged over the last couple of years and I think could take, as was the case in the past, a couple of leaders before the party starts to become competitive again,” Telford added.
With files from Lucas Casaletto, Angelyna Mintz and Dean Recksiedler.