As of the 2021 census, there were about 195,000 homes within the borders of the City of Surrey.
But over the coming decades, the number of homes in existence within Surrey would need to nearly double in order to keep up with demand and main a relative level of affordability.
According to the City of Surrey’s newly released 2024 interim Housing Needs Report, a total of 169,221 new additional homes would need to be generated within the jurisdiction over the next 20 years through 2043. This represents an increase of 87% over existing supply.
The 2043 housing needs entail a mix of 10,533 new homes to reduce the “extreme core housing need” (renters and owners with a mortgage who are spending 50% or more of their total pre-tax income on housing), 2,458 new affordable homes to reduce homelessness, 12,847 new homes to reduce “suppressed household formation” (households unable to form due to limited housing supply options, such as family-sized units with multiple bedrooms), 114,209 new homes to accommodate the projected population growth over 20 years, 1,408 new secured rental homes to restore local vacancy rates to healthy levels (a healthy rental housing vacancy rate is between 3% to 5%), and new 27,765 homes to meet local demand.
Over the next five years through 2028, the total number of new homes needed in Surrey is pegged at 53,111. This includes 2,633 new homes to reduce the “extreme core housing need,” 1,229 new affordable homes to reduce homelessness, 3,212 new homes to reduce “suppressed household formation,” 38,744 new homes to accommodate the projected population growth over five years, 352 new secured rental homes to restore local vacancy rates to healthy levels, and 6,941 new homes to meet local demand.
Of special note, half of the specific total new affordable housing supply to reduce homelessness over 20 years would need to be achieved within the first five years, which represents a much higher short-term proportion than any other type of housing need.
It appears that the total number of new homes required aligns with Surrey’s projected population growth through 2043.
According to the provincial government’s BC Statistics division, Surrey’s population will grow from 653,000 residents in 2023 to 682,000 in 2024. Surrey’s population will then further increase to 746,000 in 2028, with the jurisdiction becoming BC’s most populated city in 2029 when it hits 765,600 — exceeding Vancouver’s population for the first time. It is expected to further grow to 990,000 by 2043, and become the first BC city to reach and exceed one million residents in 2044.
These new housing figures are based on the Housing Needs Report formula provided by the provincial government to municipal governments for calculating the number of new homes needed. The goal is to ensure that all residents or households within a municipal jurisdiction have homes that are appropriate for their needs and affordable.
These figures do not represent targets or estimates of what will actually be built. Instead, they provide policymakers with an indication of the supply increase needed to prevent further deterioration of housing affordability and supply conditions. Since 2019, each city in BC is required to produce an updated Housing Needs Report every five years.
Surrey is looking to focus much of its growth within Surrey City Centre, near its existing SkyTrain stations, and near its future SkyTrain stations along the Expo Line’s Surrey-Langley SkyTrain station, which is guided by the transit-oriented development strategies of the Fleetwood Plan (up to 100,000 more residents) and the Clayton Corridor Plan. Other area plans elsewhere in the city also prescribe the densification of existing neighbourhoods, including the Scott Road-72 Avenue corridor, which is currently served by the R6 RapidBus (possibility of a long-term upgrade into Bus Rapid Transit or rail rapid transit) and potentially eyed for up to 51,000 additional homes for up to 160,000 new residents.
In June 2024, separate from the Housing Needs Report, the provincial government provided the City of Surrey with a Housing Supply Target order of 27,256 new additional units over the next five years through 2029. This figure represents not merely approvals, but the number of net new homes the municipal government must help push toward a state of completion and occupancy.