Rising sea levels are putting Canada’s coastal communities at increasing risk, and two major cities in British Columbia are among the most vulnerable.
According to NASA, if the current sea level rise trend continues, the Pacific Northwest will likely see increased coastal erosion and high tide flooding, with impacts varying widely by location.
A recent study by insurtech company MyChoice highlights the growing threat of coastal flooding fueled by climate change, which is driving the rapid rise in sea levels worldwide.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the rate of sea level rise has more than doubled in the past three decades. From an average of 2.13 mm per year between 1993 and 2002, the rate surged to approximately 4.77 mm annually from 2014 to 2023, spurred by the thermal expansion of oceans and the melting of glaciers and ice sheets.
BC communities on the front lines
The MyChoice study estimates that BC will be the most affected province in Canada, with an average sea level rise (SLR) of 127.4 cm projected by 2100. This places approximately 3.18 million residents and 3,190 dwellings at direct risk of flooding, particularly in coastal cities like Vancouver and Victoria.
Below are the top 10 areas at risk of flood. For a full list of Canadian communities at high risk of coastal floods, click here. These cities, located just meters above sea level, face significant threats as tides creep higher, particularly in areas with dense populations and infrastructure.
The national picture
Across Canada, an estimated 3.9 million people are living in areas projected to experience coastal flooding by the end of the century. At least 11,814 dwellings located just one meter above sea level are expected to be flooded by 2100.
Other regions at risk include:
- Nova Scotia: The province faces an even higher average SLR of 159.3 cm, threatening 508,114 residents and 2,231 dwellings.
- Quebec: While the coastal population at risk is smaller at 12,190, the province could see an average SLR of 156 cm, endangering 1,968 dwellings.
A wake-up call for BC
British Columbia’s stunning coastlines and iconic cities are facing an uncertain future, especially as climate events become more frequent.
Proactive measures, from improved flood defences to urban planning focused on resilience, are essential to mitigate the impact of rising tides. Catastrophic flooding is a reality BC has seen in Abbotsford in 2021, but also less severely and more frequently in urban centres.
As the data underscores, rising sea levels aren’t just a distant possibility — they’re a reality.