The final outcome of the 2024 provincial election in British Columbia won’t be known until at least Monday, with two crucial riding recounts starting Sunday afternoon.
Initial counts for the Oct. 19 provincial election show the B.C. NDP are leading or elected in 46 seats, the B.C. Conservatives in 45 seats and the B.C. Greens have been elected in two seats. In the B.C. Legislature, 47 seats are required to form a majority government.
CBC News has not projected the winners for 11 ridings, with the NDP leading in six of those seats and the Conservatives in five.
That means both the B.C. NDP and the Conservative Party of B.C. still have a chance to form a majority government, depending on the results of recounts and as-yet unallied mail-in and absentee ballots.
It also means that if neither of those parties reaches 47 seats, they are likely to rely on support from the Green Party of B.C., who have two seats, in order to form government.
Here’s what you need to know about what comes next.
When will we know a winner?
Under B.C.’s Election Act, the final count of all ballots must take place on a date specified by the province’s chief electoral officer, which must be at least four days after final voting day.
In the case of the 2024 election, the final count is scheduled to start on Saturday, Oct. 26, continue through Sunday and end sometime on Monday, Oct. 28.
CBC News will post projected winners on its B.C. Votes 2024 page as results are available.
WATCH | What are the possible outcomes after the final votes come in?
With the winner of the B.C. election yet to be determined, political scientist Hamish Telford sheds light on what could come next, and says it’s possible the NDP is looking for a partnership with the Greens like the one it had after the 2017 vote.
Why the delay? Why can’t we start counting right away?
Elections B.C. says the timing of the final count is determined by the Election Act, and a number of factors go into why it might take a while for a riding’s results to be known.
B.C. has a “vote anywhere” model, in which voters registered in one riding can cast their ballot at a polling station in a different riding. Elections B.C. says counting “extensive” amounts of those votes took more time on election night.
“Because B.C. has a vote anywhere model, we need to send any ballots for candidates in Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Surrey City Centre that were cast in other districts to those two electoral districts to conduct their recounts,” an Elections B.C. statement reads.
“This process must be completed accurately and securely, which takes time.”
What does the final count include?
The final count will include mail-in ballots and out-of-district votes that were sent to Elections B.C. after the close of advance voting.
It will also include manual recounts for two ridings, Surrey City Cenre and Juan de Fuca-Malahat, where the margin of victory is considered too tight and a partial manual recount in Kelowna Centre, where there was a one-vote transcription discrepancy involving a single electronic tabulator, with the problem “likely due to election official error.”
How many mail-in ballots will be counted?
On Thursday, the provincial elections authority said is has received 65,000 uncounted absentee and mail-in ballots, up from the previous estimate of 49,000.
Mail-in ballots that were received before the close of advance voting were included in the initial Oct. 19 vote.
On Friday, Elections B.C. provided an estimated breakdown of the number of ballots yet to be counted in every riding.
Which ridings’ results will be recounted, and how will it be done?
The two ridings where full recounts will occur are Juan de Fuca-Malahat, which the NDP is leading by 20 votes, and Surrey City Centre, which the NDP is leading by 95 votes.
A partial manual recount is happening in Kelowna Centre, where the Conservative Party is leading by 148 votes.
That recount, Elections B.C. says, is being done as a result of a one-vote transcription discrepancy involving a single electronic tabulator, with the problem “likely due to election official error.”
The recount there will only involve votes that passed through the tabulator in question.
British Columbia is still waiting to see who will form the province’s next government, after John Rustad took the B.C. Conservatives from two per cent of the popular vote to more than 43 per cent, according to preliminary results.
Any district where the margin of victory is 100 votes or less is subject to an automatic recount. Parties can also request a recount in close ridings.
Elections B.C. says recounts have to be conducted by hand, and not by tabulators, as per law.
The recount in Kelowna Centre results from a request lodged by the NDP candidate, Loyal Woodridge.
“Recount requests in Courtenay-Comox, Maple Ridge East, Oak Bay-Gordon Head, and Surrey-Guildford did not meet the requirements … and were declined,” Elections B.C. says.
Which other ridings could impact the final outcome?
Aside from Juan de Fuca-Malahat, Surrey City Centre and Kelowna Centre, there are eight other ridings that are still considered too close to project a winner and where final results could be impacted by mail-in and absentee ballots.
They are:
When will the results be counted and posted?
Elections B.C. says the tally of mail-in ballots in all districts will begin on Oct. 26, starting with the district where the results are closest. Updates will be posted at 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. on Saturday and Sunday whenever a district’s tally is complete, and reflected on the Elections B.C. website and CBC page B.C. Votes 2024.
Mail-in ballot counting will continue on Sunday and will be updated online at 1 p.m. and 4 p.m.
The recount in the ridings of Juan de Fuca-Malahat, Surrey City Centre and Kelowna Centre will begin Sunday at 1 p.m.
B.C. Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau says she has spoken to B.C. NDP Leader David Eby ahead of a final vote count on the weekend. The B.C. NDP is just one seat shy of a majority after Saturday’s election. Depending on the final vote tally, Eby could need the Greens’ help to form government. Meera Bains has more on that.
Elections B.C. says they expect the results for Surrey City Centre and Kelowna Centre to be completed and posted on Sunday.
The results of the Juan de Fuca Malahat recount are not expected to be completed until Monday.
A small number of remaining absentee ballots, which Elections B.C. says represent about one per cent of the total of more than two million ballots cast, will be counted on Monday, with the results updated on its website hourly starting at 9 a.m.
Were the votes counted by hand?
Elections B.C. says a majority of the votes cast in this election were counted by electronic tabulators, and only a small number of ballots cast at certain polling stations were counted by hand.
The tabulators were manufactured by Dominion Voting Systems and leased from Elections Ontario. Elections B.C. says the devices have “an excellent track record in Canada” having been used in two provincial elections in Ontario, in 2018 and 2022, and in elections in New Brunswick.
According to Elections New Brunswick, audits of the machines have shown the machines are reliable and accurate, in some cases providing more accurate results than hand-counts.
Mail-in ballots, in most cases, were also counted using tabulators and those being counted this weekend will also be recorded using tabulators.
Recounts, however, will be done by hand.
Could we see judicial recounts?
Judicial recounts, which are manually conducted by a justice of the B.C. Supreme Court, can be requested by a candidate in a riding where the total margin of victory is less than 1/500 of the number of total ballots cast.
This year, a request for a judicial recount must be made within six days of final count — which would be Nov. 4.
If it’s granted, the recount then must occur between seven and 15 days after the results of the final count are declared, Elections B.C. says.
Eby says all options are on the table as he tries to form a government after Saturday’s nail-biter of an election. New Democrats are one seat short of a majority ahead of the final vote count. As Meera Bains reports, the NDP and Conservatives are both courting the Green Party.