Simplified: Everything Canadians should know about non-confidence motions

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A lot is happening in Canadian politics right now.

From the New Democratic Party (NDP) axing its supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals earlier this month to Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre’s non-confidence motion put forward against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government, it can be easy for the average Canuck to get lost in all of the drama.

So, how is all of this impacting Canadians, and could it mean having to head to the polls earlier than expected?

We spoke with Montreal-based political consultant Annalisa Harris to break down the past month’s events in an easy-to-understand way.

What is a non-confidence vote?

Let’s start with the basics. On Wednesday, the Liberal government survived a non-confidence vote put forward by the Conservatives, which was defeated 211-120.

Put simply, a vote of no confidence (or non-confidence motion) aims to force a general election and remove the prime minister from office.

It’s a part of the Canadian parliamentary system’s Confidence Convention, which holds Trudeau and his cabinet responsible to the House of Commons for their actions.

This means that when a non-confidence vote happens, the governing party must have the support and confidence of a majority of the Members of Parliament to remain in office.

“In a minority government situation, that means that the government always has to have the support of another opposition party,” said Harris.

The minority Liberal government lived to see another day because the Bloc Quebecois and the NDP voted against the non-confidence motion.

Why did Poilievre call for a non-confidence motion?

Harris says that, typically, non-confidence motions are put forward for a specific reason, such as a scandal or a specific issue.

For example, former Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s government lost a non-confidence motion in 2011. Opposition parties cited Harper’s failure to disclose full financial details of his “tough-on-crime” legislation, corporate tax cuts, and plans to buy fighter jets.

“What’s interesting about this one is that it was just plain; we have no confidence in the government,” said Harris.

Poilievre is advertising the non-confidence vote as a “carbon tax election.”

“The Costly Coalition is back & on the path to QUADRUPLING the carbon tax to $0.61/L,” he posted on X shortly after the vote on Wednesday.

Yes, the federal government’s carbon tax increase in April has been a point of contention among Canadians, but Harris says the Conservatives’ attempt to take down the Liberals is likely due to an accumulation of issues.

“When people make big decisions, it’s never one thing,” she said. “It’s a frustration with the government; it’s definitely the carbon tax, and it’s definitely affordability as well.”

NDP, Bloc Quebecois vote against the motion

Trudeau’s government is safe — but for a price.

Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet has essentially given the Liberals an ultimatum: They must meet their demands by October 29.

They’re calling on the federal government to help pass two bills—one protecting supply management and another increasing seniors’ pensions.

The NDP is demanding that its Pharmacare legislation be passed so it can “campaign on that and say, ‘Look what we got for Canadians,’” Harris speculated.

She thinks the Liberals will fulfill these demands.

“They’re actually close to being achieved, and I think it’s really in the Liberals’ interest to do it,” said Harris.

When it comes to hiking Old Age Security payouts, the Bloc wants 10% more a month for seniors between the ages of 65 and 74.

“That’s something that’s pretty doable, and when it comes to supply management, the Liberal government is in favour of it. It’s something they agree with,” explained Harris.

She says the only thing that could prevent these demands from being met is that they need to pass both the House of Commons and the Senate.

“I’m pretty confident that the Senate will find a way to pass both of these bills,” added Harris.

Could there be an early election?

After the Conservatives’ failed first attempt, Poilievre tabled another non-confidence motion on Thursday, which will be voted on next Tuesday.

If that vote is defeated, the Conservatives are expected to table one more non-confidence motion before Christmas.

So the big question now is whether the Liberal government can hold power until the next scheduled election, which is expected to happen in October 2025.

non-confidence

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Harris predicts that Trudeau will survive this fall.

“I just don’t think the conditions are right for the Bloc Quebecois and for the NDP to go to an election,” she explained.

What she’s looking toward is the spring budget, which she says is a big question mark for the Liberals.

“The budgets, like the fall economic statement, are automatically confidence votes because of what they call money bills,” explained Harris. “If the opposition was going to bring down the government, if they do it on the budget, then it’s a way to do it on principle, so they don’t look as opportunist.”

“The government is distracted”

Now that we know the ins-and-outs of what has been happening in Ottawa, it’s important to know how it all affects Canadians.

The end of the NDP’s supply-and-confidence agreement, which would’ve essentially kept the Trudeau government in power until next year, seemed to have set all of this in motion.

“It’s affected things in that we’re in all these negotiations, we’re in all these tactics,” said Harris.

She says that what’s difficult is that the Liberals used to be able to count on the NDP for support, and that’s no longer a given.

Harris adds that the NDP used to be more part of governance and receive regular updates, but that’s no longer the situation.

“It makes everything much less predictable, and it also means that the government is focused on staying in government, and that’s taking away energy from solving issues and from actually bringing policies and actually governing,” she explained.

“It just brings uncertainty, and I don’t think it’s good for Canadians, because, again, the government is distracted.”

Harris says it also makes it hard for the government to make long-term plans and to embark on new projects.

As a political consultant who works with Indigenous clients, she says they have been having a difficult time negotiating Indigenous relations.

“It’s hard to…settle some of the long-standing issues of Indigenous communities when they don’t know if there’s going to be a government.”

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