While everyone loves to talk about the good times with the Vancouver Canucks, sometimes reality might come crashing down on the team.
Inevitably, some members of the Canucks are likely to regress next season, especially after nearly half of the team enjoyed career years in 2023-24.
So, which members of the Canucks are most likely to take a step back next season? Here are five candidates.
1. Dakota Joshua
Canucks head coach Rick Tocchet once boldly proclaimed that Dakota Joshua had 20-goal potential.
Tocchet was clearly onto something. If Joshua didn’t miss 19 games last season, he would have gotten there.
The 27-year-old jumped from 11 goals in 79 games during his first season with the Canucks to 18 goals in 63 games last season.
If Joshua is going to get over the hump and crack the 20-goal mark this season, he’s likely going to need to shoot the puck more.
Joshua netted 18 goals on just 84 shots last season, giving him the third-highest shooting percentage in the NHL (21.4%).
The NHL is littered with guys who regressed the year following them, having one of the highest shooting percentages in the league. In 2022-23, Alex Killorn and Calle Jarnkrok were both in the top 10 in terms of shooting percentage. They both saw their efficiency cut in half last season.
Joshua does get a lot of his shots and chances from in tight, so there’s a path for him to keep up the same efficiency. However, it’s going to be awfully tough for him to score on over 20% of his shots once again.
2. Nils Höglander
At even-strength last season, Joshua had the fifth-highest shooting percentage in the league. Nils Höglander was 2nd.
The youngest player on the Canucks last season was wildly efficient, netting 24 goals, all at even-strength. Only Auston Matthews and Zach Hyman posted more even strength goals per 60 in 2023-24.
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Höglander is facing an uphill battle to replicate that same type of efficiency. He scored on exactly 20% of his shots last season. During the first three years of his career prior to last year, Höglander’s scored on 9% of his shots.
This is a very talented player with the puck on his stick, so there’s a chance that his true shooting efficiency lies somewhere between the 20% he registered last season and the 9% he recorded in the three years prior.
3. Tyler Myers
The Canucks surprised a lot of people last season. In terms of individual performances, though, there probably wasn’t one more surprising than the resurgence of Tyler Myers.
The 34-year-old was overpaid the minute he signed in Vancouver back in 2019. While his play was commendable during his first season with the Canucks in 2019-20, Myers has been on a downward trajectory…until last season
Myers has a resurgent year under Tocchet and assistant coach Adam Foote. The chaotic nature of his game dissipated, and for the most part he looked sturdy in a second-pairing role.
The Houston, Texas native also registered 29 points last season. That was the most he’s recorded in a single year throughout his five years in Vancouver.
Can Myers keep up the positive progression, fresh off of signing a three-year extension? The key might be to limit his minutes. He averaged 21:35 per game during his first four years in Vancouver but saw that dialled back to 18:50 last season.
It might be tough to keep his ice time below the 20-minute mark, considering that the Canucks defence is weaker on paper. And guys who are about to turn 35 typically don’t continue to get better.
But he could make fans forget about regression if he scores more highlight-reel goals like this one.
4. Thatcher Demko
Make no mistake, Thatcher Demko is one of the best goalies in the NHL – when he’s healthy.
Demko’s health is the biggest storyline for the Canucks entering the 2024-25 campaign. He’s expected to miss training camp and may not be ready for opening night.
Even if he’s healthy, he’ll be hard-pressed to be as good as he was last season.
Over the past five seasons, only one NHL goaltender has been nominated for the Vezina more than once. That player is Winnipeg Jets netminder Connor Hellebuyck, who has won twice over that span along with one other third-place finish.
If healthy, there’s little reason to believe Demko won’t be one of the best goaltenders in the league. He’s just not likely to be as dominant.
5. J.T. Miller
All J.T. Miller has done since coming to Vancouver is prove people wrong.
However, replicating his 100+ point performance from last season is a huge ask.
While Joshua and Höglander both finished in the top in terms of even strength shooting percentage, Miller also cracked the top 10.
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His overall shooting percentage of 19.1% was a career-high, although it’s not terribly far ahead of the 16% shooting percentage he’s achieved throughout his Canucks career.
Despite the Canucks mediocre power play last season, Miller did achieve a career-high 40 power-play points. He registered a point on 69% of the Canucks power-play goals. Even if the Canucks power play improves, that point-gobbling efficiency will be hard to top.
Thankfully for the Canucks, Miller’s regression might mean he’s still a dominant player, just one that’s in the 85-90 point range instead of one who surpasses 100 points.
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