A new Angus Reid poll shows that the collapse of B.C. United has levelled the playing field between the B.C. NDP and the B.C. Conservatives.
Released Friday afternoon, the survey shows that the B.C. Conservatives have 44 per cent support among decided and leaning voters who were polled, while the B.C. NDP has 43 per cent support. The B.C. Greens have support from 10 per cent.
In comparison, the governing party held a comfortable lead over its rivals just three months ago.
The online survey polled a representative randomized sample of 1,049 British Columbians from Aug. 28 to 30. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Opposition Leader Kevin Falcon on Wednesday suspended the campaign of B.C. United, formerly known as the B.C. Liberals, and threw his support behind the B.C. Conservatives led by John Rustad. Falcon’s move came just weeks before the provincial election campaign officially starts on Sept. 21.
“What we’ve seen is a reset,” said Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute. “This is not a comfortable feeling for the NDP.”
Falcon explains why his party is getting out of the race and its plans to work with the Conservatives to defeat the NDP.
The poll said Premier David Eby is still viewed more favourably than Rustad.
The survey also suggested that British Columbians are twice as likely to say their opinion of Rustad has improved over recent weeks compared to Eby. A majority also consider the province to be on the “wrong track” regarding the opioid crisis and housing affordability.
“If this election ends up being a referendum on the performance of the NDP government since Eby was sworn in or even going back to 2020, it’s really bad news for the incumbent,” Kurl said, adding that the governing party always comes with baggage.
“If it comes down to leadership, Eby is still seen at this stage positively enough that that could carry him through, particularly against quite an unknown and untested leader in John Rustad.”
With less than two months until election day, many B.C. United supporters are re-evaluating how they’re approaching the polls. CBC’s Jon Hernandez visited a few ridings to hear how constituents are digesting the big news.
Meanwhile, the poll indicates that 11 per cent of British Columbians are currently undecided.
“There is some dust that needs to settle,” Kurl said. “Everyone’s got whiplash from the political events of the last week, so that will play into it.”
Marie Della Mattia, the B.C. NDP’s campaign director, said in a statement to CBC News that many former B.C. United supporters are feeling abandoned and adrift because they don’t align with Rustad’s values.
“Those voters have a home with the B.C. NDP,” Della Mattia said.
According to the poll, 68 per cent of those who voted for the B.C. Liberals in the 2020 election say they intend to vote for the Conservatives, while 17 per cent say they would swing to the NDP. Eight per cent say they are undecided.
CBC News has also reached out to the B.C. Conservatives’ campaign for comment.